From “selective two-child policy” to universal two-child policy: will the payment crisis of China’s pension system be solved?

Results: (1) if the “one-child policy” were still employed, the accumulated deficit of pension insurance fund would appear in the year of 2076; (2) if all couples that satisfy the rules of “selective two-child policy” bear the second child, the time of accumulated deficit of pension insurance fund would be postponed by about 9 years; (3) after implementing the universal two-child policy, the time of accumulated deficit of pension insurance fund would delay under different situations of fertility intentions, if more than 54% of the qualified couples bear a second child, the accumulated deficit of pension insurance fund would not appear before 2090. The above conclusions have passed the sensitivity tests.